Egypt at a crossroads

The armed forces, the western or Asian powers, or the political puppets who might secure their immediate interests will not ultimately prevent people from winning their rights and dignity. It is a question of time, and courage. Courage is everywhere in the Arab streets these days.
It is crucial for people to remain non-violent and to hold fast to the philosophy and the spirit of the first Tahrir protestThese are critical days. Egyptians are gathering in Tahrir Square demanding that the military step down. They want a true and transparent democratic process within which civil society can find its legitimate place and role. It has become clear that this is not exactly the military’s intention and vision. After accepting the prime minister’s resignation, the ruling junta floated the name of Kamal Ganzouri, a 77-year-old former Hosni Mubarak lieutenant. The simple mention of such a candidate demonstrates how the military is trying to control the situation. Tantawi and his henchmen are simply not ready for, and not willing to support a true democratic transition. From behind the scenes they search for allies, and attempt to conclude agreements to protect themselves and maintain control over the state.

The people who are protesting in Tahrir Square need support. They clearly understand that Egypt is at the crossroads; if true liberation is on the agenda, it is here and now that things are going to be decided. To remove Mubarak was but a first step; now the protesters are facing the regime with its structure, its interests and even its allies. These days they are resisting the less visible and complex forces that lie at the heart of the Egyptian apparatus, domestically and internationally. In doing so, they are not only addressing domestic issues, but also face international challenges connected to the Middle East (the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, western and Asian interests, other popular movements, etc.). It is not going to be easy: after months of non-violent resistance (and the military’s apparent restraint), we are now witnessing repression, arrests, torture and killings by both the police and the armed forces. They might apologise but something has changed. It is crucial for the people who continue to protest in Tahrir square to remain non-violent, to hold fast to the philosophy and the spirit of the first demonstrations: no weapons but assertiveness, courage and dignity.

Friday was advertised as the demonstration of “the last chance.” We should remain more optimistic, and make an in-depth analysis of the situation in all its complexity. From behind the scenes the military is playing a dirty game that has nothing to do with a potentially democratic future. Some are arguing for patience; it is a transition period, they say. That is partially right — transitions take time, compromise and effort — but this is not exactly what is happening in Egypt. Calls for democracy are heard, promises are repeated (by the junta, announcing it will leave in June), and an election date is set, while negotiations and potential deals are made to share power and interests. The military is a big player; it is in touch with all the significant organisations and trends within Egyptian civil society. Among them is, of course, the Muslim Brotherhood. Tensions within the Islamist organisation are high: some of its leaders are close to the young generation and want to support the protesters by calling for a complete reform of the regime while others (the majority of the current leadership) want to secure their future role within society and are ready to deal with the armed forces to get out of the current situation. They have distanced themselves from the demonstrations and played an ambiguous role between the civil society and the army. On the other hand, it should not be forgotten that the Americans are not far from the negotiations. The Egyptian armed forces are an important ally and, although we hear American calls for the civilians to take over, the US position is far from being clear. A deal between the Army and the Muslim Brotherhood might prove an interesting outcome for the American government. Even more so if they can manage to convince a “civil figure” who can please the street and secure their interests, such as Mohammad ElBaradei, to assume office. The Egyptian spring looks more and more like a cold political calculation within which the people’s hopes are secondary, if anything.

Egypt is not Tunisia. From early on, I was pessimistic about the Egyptians following in the footsteps of the Tunisians. They proved me wrong. But the current situation might prove me right again: appearances can be deceiving. There were protests, hopes were high and eventually Mubarak left; but we are far from the Tunisian example. It might be interesting to read the Egyptian situation in the light of what is happening in Syria, Yemen and Libya (where the secret negotiations between the National Transitional Council, the American and European governments give an insight into what is really going on) much more than the situation in Tunisia and even Morocco, where the Islamist party is certainly going to play a new role in the political landscape.

Contradictory forces — domestically and internationally — are playing for time; powerful interests are at stake. In the Middle East, the challenges are many, as are the conflicting interests. Genuine democracies in Egypt, Syria, Libya and Yemen are far from becoming a reality. In fact, genuine democracy is far from being the objective of many of the region’s protagonists. The struggle will not be easy. Nevertheless, we should remain consistent and courageous in our support for the civilian populations who refuse to give up.

They are in the streets in Egypt, Syria and Yemen; they have been struggling in Libya. It is imperative to take their side. Innocent people have not been killed in vain: whatever the immediate result of such dirty, behind-the-scenes calculations, something is happening in the Arab world. Today, or tomorrow, there is not only a hope but also a historical truth: Arabs will find their way towards empowerment and freedom. The armed forces, the western or Asian powers, or the political puppets who might secure their immediate interests will not ultimately prevent people from winning their rights and dignity. It is a question of time, and courage. Courage is everywhere in the Arab streets these days.

Source: gulfnews