While Tunisia seems to be moving slowly towards democratisation — a process fraught with tension and uncertainty — Egypt, Syria, Lebanon and Libya are plunged in crisis. Violence, at varying degrees of intensity, is spreading.
After the popular uprisings that were notable for their non-violence, armed conflict has come to the fore; with dozens, even hundreds of deaths. What once seemed a bright future has suddenly turned dark.
The Middle East is a complex place with numerous and interlocking issues; there is talk of war against Iran as, in recent weeks, dangers multiply and tensions increase. All the regional countries, and their allies around the world, are on high alert.
Israel has labelled Iran a threat to its existence, and the US and Europe have announced an embargo on Iranian oil (while offering reassurances that the Libyan reserves now under their control might be tapped as a short-term replacement).
Amidst the confusion in Egypt, the US is doing its utmost to protect its interests, relying on its strong links with the segment of the military that still controls the country. Russia and China have just vetoed a UN resolution condemning violence by the Bashar Al Assad regime in Syria. Positions are hardening: old and new Middle East players are facing off in the name of opposing interests.
Turkey — still an American ally but also a new player on the chessboard that stretches toward the east and Asia — would prefer a third way. As a Muslim majority country, its government is well aware of divisions between Sunnis and Shiites that threaten contemporary Muslim awareness.
Many had hoped that the Arab Spring would ensure a bright future for the region, with new aspirations and new national and international alliances (the people themselves share a thirst for liberty, dignity and democracy). Instead, each country has sunk into its internal contradictions, fratricidal conflicts and violence causing the deaths of innocents.
In the shadow of the recent Egyptian elections, the military has done everything in its power to spread doubt and fear. It knows that its future domination depends on today’s instability.
The Syrian regime points to the “terrorism” of those who resist it, organising bombings and shootings to justify its merciless repression. Scenarios that have been seen hundreds of times, repeated, predictable: just what has changed in the Middle East? Governments make a mockery of people’s hopes just as the West plays on words and humanitarian concerns.
The situation is serious; the courage and determination of the people is steadfast. It is time to sound the alarm against the threat of regression, and of an outright reversal, at the hands of the regimes that are arising today throughout the region.
So great is the horror of dictatorship that the people may soon be faced with the cynicism of ‘controlled democracies’. Already, the three chief characteristics of the new model of governance have come into focus: nationalist obsession as opposed to regional policies, overestimating the strength of political structures in comparison with the dominant economic model, and, finally, the role of the armed forces in matters of security and stability.
The three are already being applied in the monarchies (with the exception of the insistence on a democratic model to which only lip service is paid), and the emerging geopolitical map of the region conceals the same mechanisms beneath ringing declarations of democratic faith.
The violence that is spreading across the Middle East is taking place at a decisive moment for the future of its people and their liberation. No ‘springtime’ has come; no revolution has taken place, as I have insisted ever since the very first uprisings. But popular awareness can still exploit this historically critical moment of violence and tension to deepen resistance to manipulation, whether at the hands of the military or the political forces that are doing all they can to promote division.
No deference must be shown to the dictators (as in Syria), to former regime holdovers (as in Egypt) or to states and corporations in search of markets (as in Libya). National consciousness and demonstrations without vision are no longer enough.
Uprisings need clear regional and international objectives in order to become revolutions. For the time-being, the US, Europe and Israel, as do China, Russia and India, are protecting their own interests, both openly and behind the scenes.
Were the Arab world to lose hope in the wake of its failed uprisings, the great powers would have lost nothing. To succeed, the revolutions of today demand nothing less than an Arab consciousness, which only the people of the region can express. If, and only if, they do not abandon the struggle.
The people of the region must transform today’s violence into liberation. If they do not, the dead will be counted among the ruins, after a football match or a village massacre. Such is the price of freedom, such is the price of dignity.
Source: http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/freedom-from-cycle-of-violence-1.977376
