The Turkish Elections

Turkey’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been reelected for a third consecutive term: undeniably a great achievement. Over the last ten years, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the governments he has headed, has demonstrated great political and strategic understanding and skills. Much effort has been made to improve the domestic situation. Investment in education has increased; socioeconomic difficulties were tackled with a strong political will. By rejecting corruption, promoting transparency and advocating equal rights and opportunities the party won respect and broad public support.

The Erdogan government’s has opened channels to Turkey’s political, cultural and religious groups. Dialogue with Armenians, Kurds and others ethnic and religious minorities (and even sects) has begun, to air historical grievances, heal painful wounds, and work toward eventual solutions. The current government has decided, even if it cannot solve these internal conflicts, at least to improve relationships among Turkey’s citizens by acknowledging their suffering and claims. The process is not perfect, but early results are encouraging: the new approach may well succeed.

We are witnessing the same philosophy in the country’s foreign policy. Skillfully led by Foreign Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, the « zero conflict with our neighbors » strategy is based the principle that every conflict has a solution that must be found and applied. Turkey has improved its relations with almost all its neighbors. The Turkish government has kept the focus on its priorities, and it works. A new, very visible, presence in the Balkans is giving rise to as much hope as concern in the region. Turkey’s dynamic and unexpected presence in Africa is a clear sign of a new southward policy. More than fifty embassies have been opened in African countries accompanying huge investments throughout the continent: Turkey is becoming a significant factor in African political and economic development.
We have witnessed a similar shift in the Middle East. After years of having been perceived as too close to the Israeli government, Turkey under Mr. Erdogan showed on many occasions (Davos, Gaza, the flotilla crisis, etc) its determination to support Palestinian rights. On the symbolic level, he has emerged as the « Muslim leader » who dares to speak the truth. The political dividends have been substantial. Turkey found the right tone and the right words in support of the Tunisian and Egyptian people against their dictators. Finally, we must note as a positive step forward the new relations the current government has developed with both South American and Asian countries (Brazil, Venezuela, China, India).

Turkey is currently showing the world that it is a key player in almost all regions. While U.S. President Barack Obama did not even mention Turkey in his last speech on the Middle East, many voices are hailing a potential « Turkish model » for either Islamic governance or for a democratic Muslim majority society—or both.
European indifference and even hostility towards Turkish integration into the European Union is facing a new reality: Europe will soon need Turkey more than Turkey needs Europe. At the same time, Turkey is emerging from under the domination of the US-EU axis (even within NATO). The current government is fully aware of and involved in a multipolar, global world; there are great opportunities for Turkey to become a world political and economic power.

No wonder that the AKP has been elected for the third time. The government’s achievements and the weakness of the opposition explain the results. The ruling party knew victory was assured. Yet, at the heart of this successful experience, we must remain vigilant and continue to ask the necessary hard questions. The move to transform the Turkish political structure into a presidential system is cause for concern. What are the reasons, what are the intentions? The attraction of power is common among politicians; it can become a weakness, even a disease. Prime minister Erdogan aptly reminded Hosni Mubarak, as the Egyptian dictator was facing mass protests and popular rejection, « one must learn to leave as we are all going to leave ». What is true in times of rebellion remains true in times of success.

Turkey must also deal with several political contradictions. Things have improved with regard to clarity in its relationship with Israel but many questions persist about Turkey’s reluctance to bring pressure to bear on the dictatorial Syrian regime. True, Prime Minister Erdogan has shown signs of deep disappointment but no change in position or effective decision have yet been taken. Consistency will be a key factor in the region, now and in the future. The Turkish government is fully aware of its strengths and its potential, but it must beware of an excess of confidence and ambition. References to the old Ottoman Empire in the Balkans could be misunderstood and prove counterproductive. To become a central political actor in the global world and to remain humble may prove a challenge for the current government.

Perhaps the country’s ambitions would be better understood if they focused on economic issues. Turkey has shown that there are no contradictions between liberal democratic values and Islam: this is a great historical contribution. Turkey is now poised to contribute in economic terms. Is it a matter of competing with the West within the dominant global economic order? Is it all a matter of neo-liberalism, speculation, growth, consumerism and productivity? Is Turkey ambitious enough in the economic field to provide the world with new alternatives, with a more ethical approach? Should this the objective or is Turkey to be obsessed, like the others economic powers of the G20, by growth for the sake of profit? A simple question, an ethical issue, a critical challenge.